Investment Results

Live Investment Results 2017

Live Investment Results 2017

Investment Performance 2017/18

Please note that the new investment strategies only began on the 1st May, 2017, so we dont have a full calendar year's worth of results yet. YTD = Year-to-date, i.e. the actual live returns from May 1st, 2017 - 29th Dec, 2017.

We have compared our strategies in he table below to the AOA ETF, which is the iShares Core Aggressive ETF strategy.

The results below our NET of all fees. So, fees and commissions are included.

  ETF STRATEGY

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV*

DEC*

MAY-DEC 2017

  CONSERVATIVE

0.78

0.55

2.28

0.35

0.78

0.99

2.23

0.56

8.96%

  BALANCED 

0.84

0.42

1.49

0.09

0.40

2.27

0.27

2.56

8.75%

  ADVENTUROUS 

3.44

0.47

5.59

1.33

0.95

2.82

0.57

2.38

19.00%

  AOA ETF

1.8

0.5 2.1 0.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 6.13%

  ETF STRATEGY

JAN

FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

  CONSERVATIVE

3.04

-3.61   -0.90 -2.15 3.86              

  BALANCED 

4.35

-5.41 -0.46 -4.57 7.51              

  ADVENTUROUS 

12.36

-15.21 -6.22 -9.42 13.98              

  AOA ETF

1.84

-3.47 -0.35 0.90 0.80              

*Please note that we moved from the old Minimum Variance Optimisation strategy to our proprietary Momentum strategy in November. This should give better results and provide more protection. Click here to see the backtested results of the old MVO strategy vs. the new Momentum strategy. Chart shows monthly performance net of all fees and commissions for trades.

In the chart above, we are comparing our CONSERVATIVE, BALANCED and ADVENTUROUS strategies to the iShares Core Aggressive ETF which holds around 70-85% in equities and 15-30% in bonds. 

ALL of our strategies hold treasuries as a hedge. The percentage will change from month to month as selected by our algorithm for optimisation of returns to risk.

Notes on negative months - The strategy only rebalances once per month, so cannot catch "flash crashes". It is more like a large ship that turns slowly. In prolongued bear markets it will turn to treasuries, gold or cash, but the move could take more than a month.


The Money Pouch's Momentum Strategies Vs Popular ETFs

  • SPY ETF (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) - the S&P 500 index tracker - tracks a market-cap-weighted index of 500 US large & midcap stocks selected by the S&P Committee.
  • QQQ ETF (The PowerShares QQQ) - the NASDAQ 100 index tracker - tracks a modified cap-weighted index of the 100 largest stocks listed on the NASDAQ (mostly tech companies). The Nasdaq is well known for its listing of tech companies.
  • TLT ETF (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) - tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the US Treasury with remaining maturities of 20 years or more.
  • AOA ETF (iShares Core Aggressive Allocation ETF) - tracks a proprietary index that provides significant exposure to equities, and a small portion to fixed income securities with a goal of long-term capital appreciation.
  • AOM ETF (iShares Core Moderate Allocation ETF) - tracks a proprietary index that provides exposure to fixed income securities, with a smaller exposure to equities in order to seek current income, some capital preservation, and modest capital appreciation.

SPY Vs QQQ Vs Vs AOA Vs AOM ETF Chart

themoneypouch-vs-sp500

The QQQ ETF gained 15.32% from 1st May, 2017 - 29th Dec, 2017

The ADVENTUROUS STRATEGY gained 19.00% from 1st May, 2017 - 29th Dec, 2017

  • The SPY ETF gained 11.76% from 1st May, 2017 - 29th Dec, 2017
  • The AOA ETF 6.78% from 1st May, 2017 - 29th Dec, 2017
  • The AOM ETF 3.72% from 1st May, 2017 - 29th Dec, 2017
  • The TLT ETF 3.11% from 1st May, 2017 - 29th Dec, 2017

The CONSERVATIVE STRATEGY 8.96% gained from 1st May, 2017 - 29th Dec, 2017

The BALANCED STRATEGY 8.75% gained from 1st May, 2017 - 29th Dec, 2017

 

FAQ

What is the difference between the S&P500 and the NADAQ?

You can find a good explanation here.

Why did our balanced strategy beat our conservative strategy? 

This is not a full calendar year's results. Over time, we believe the balanced strategy will outperform, but currently as markets are at all time highs, investment behaviours are more risk averse.

The S&P500 ETF has beaten the conservative & balanced strategies over the latst 8 months, so why don't I just hold the SPY ETF?

The SPY ETF is 100% equities with no treasuries, bond or safety element. At the moment, stock markets are rising, so it has outperformed. Our strategies hold a treasury element and can go to cash in the event of prolongued falling markets, whereas the SPY ETF lost 56% in the matter of a couple of months in 2008 and lost 49% in 2000.

The goal is to to protect your assets from bear markets

What is a Bear Market?

A bear market occurs when stock prices fall for a sustained period, dropping at least 20% from their peak. The Great Depression in 1929 was accompanied by a painful bear market that lasted nearly two and a half years. The most recent crashes were the Dot-com crash in 2000 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 which is still fresh in many people's minds. The Great Recession in 2008 lasted one and a half years.

Here is a look at some notable bear markets of the past 80 years - thanks to CNBC.

September 1929 to June 1932 - The Great Depression

The stock market crash of Oct. 29, 1929, marked the start of the Great Depression and sparked America's most famous bear market. The S&P 500 fell 86 percent in less than three years and did not regain its previous peak until 1954.

S&P 500 Loss: 86.1% Duration: 34 months 

High: 31.86 Low: 4.4

May 1946 to June 1949 - The "Inventory Recession"

Less than a year after the end of World War II, stock prices peaked and began a long slide. As the postwar surge in demand tapered off and Americans poured their money into savings, the economy tipped into a sharp "inventory recession" in 1948.

S&P 500 Loss: 29.6% Duration: 37 months 

High: 19.25 Low: 13.55

December 1961 to June 1962 - The Kennedy Slide of '62

The economy expanded, but the Bay of Pigs attack of April 1961 and Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 sparked Cold War jitters and a brief bear market.

S&P 500 Loss: 28.0% Duration: 6 months

High: 72.64 Low: 52.32

November 1968 to May 1970

Rapid-fire growth ended with a mild recession, accompanied by relatively high inflation of about 6 percent annually. The bear market began just as Richard Nixon was elected president after a tumltuous year of assassinations and riots. The weak economy added to a tense national atmosphere dominated by the growing U.S. involvement in Vietnam.

S&P 500 loss: 36.1% Duration: 18 months 

High: 108.37 Low: 69.29

November 1980 to August 1982 - Reagan's Recession

After nearly a decade of sustained inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to nearly 20%, pushing the economy into recession. The combination of high inflation and slow growth, known as stagflation, was a factor behind Ronald Reagan's victory over President Carter in 1980.

S&P 500 Loss: 27.8% Duration: 21 months 

High: 140.52 Low: 101.44

August 1987 to December 1987 - Black Monday

After a prolonged bull run, computerized "program trading" strategies swamped the market and contributed to the Black Monday crash of Oct. 19. Investors were also nervous after a heated debate between the U.S. and Germany over currency valuations, sparking fears of a devaluation of the dollar. As a result the Dow fell 22.6 percent -- the worst day since the Panic of 1914. Yet while the days after the crash were frightening, by early December the market had bottomed out, and a new bull run had started.

S&P500 Loss: 33.5% Duration: 3 months 

High: 337.89 Low: 221.24

March 2000 to October 2002 - The Dot-com Bubble

The bursting of the dot-com bubble followed a period of soaring stock prices and exuberant speculation on new Internet companies. Companies with little or no profits had market values that often equaled or exceeded that of established "old-economy" corporate giants. The Nasdaq composite index, which soared in value thanks to the listings of hundreds of tech start-ups, plunged 50 percent in nine months and never again came close to its 2000 peak.

S&P500 Loss: 49.1%  Duration: 30 months

High: 1527.46 Low: 776.76

October 2007 to March 2009 - The Global Financial Crisis

A long-feared bursting of the housing bubble became a reality beginning in 2007, and the rising mortgage delinquency rate quickly spilled over into the credit market. By 2008, Wall Street giants like Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. were toppling, and the financial crisis erupted into a full-fledged panic. By February the market had fallen to its lowest levels since 1997.

S&P 500 loss: 56.4%  Duration: 17 months  

High: 1565.15, Oct. 9, 2007 Low: 682.55, March 5, 2009

You can never know when the next financial crisis will occur as usually it is triggered by a Black Swan event, but we are currently in the second longest bull market in history

Our strategies are purposefully designed to move to treasuries, partial cash or 100% cash in the event of prolongued market collapses. Funds are then reinvested as the stock market begins to recover momentum.

At 8½ years since the prior bear market ended in March 2009, this advance in equities is now the second oldest on record without at least a 20% drop in the S&P 500. Moving your funds to an automated strategy with a treasury hedge should bolster your investment portfolio.

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